Sahm Rule recession indicator

Real-time Sahm Rule recession indicator from FRED (SAHMREALTIME series). Send GET /api/sahm-rule with no input and pay $0.005 per call over x402 or MPP (there is no free tier). It returns a JSON object with date, value, triggered, threshold and source.

The Sahm Rule triggers when the 3-month moving average of US unemployment rises ≥0.50 percentage points above its prior-12-month low - historically a clean recession signal. No params.

Category: Live public data · Tags: sahm-rule recession unemployment macro fred indicator signal

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Parameters

Sahm Rule recession indicator takes no parameters.

Example request

curl -i "https://agent402.tools/api/sahm-rule"

Without payment this returns HTTP 402 Payment Required with the exact price for sahm-rule; any x402 v2 or MPP client pays it and retries.

Example response

{
  "date": "2026-05-01",
  "value": 0.43,
  "triggered": false,
  "threshold": 0.5,
  "source": "FRED SAHMREALTIME"
}

From an MCP client

catalog.call {
  "slug": "sahm-rule",
  "params": {}
}

The hosted connector at https://agent402.tools/mcp needs a payment for sahm-rule; the stdio package pays it from a wallet or from AGENT402_CREDITS_KEY. Local install: npx -y agent402-mcp.

Errors and behavior

• There is no input to get wrong: any request to /api/sahm-rule runs the tool.
• A paid call that ends in any status of 400 or above is not charged over x402, MPP or a prepaid credits key: settlement is cancelled when the tool fails. The exception is a Tempo push credential, a transfer the buyer sent before the call: it settles before the tool runs, so if the tool then fails the payment is recorded as a refund owed to the paying wallet.
• Wallet-only: this tool reaches the network or stored state, so it has no proof-of-work tier. A prepaid card-credits key issued earlier (Authorization: Bearer a402_...) also pays it.
• A POST with a JSON body to /api/sahm-rule is served as this GET, with the body as the input.
• An Idempotency-Key header makes a retried paid call replay the first 200 instead of charging again (an answer larger than 1 MB is not replayed).

Paid call (JavaScript agent)

import { wrapFetchWithPayment } from "@x402/fetch";
import { x402Client } from "@x402/core/client";
import { registerExactEvmScheme } from "@x402/evm/exact/client";
import { privateKeyToAccount } from "viem/accounts";

const client = new x402Client();
client.setSpendControls?.(false); // keep your own spending ceiling in code
registerExactEvmScheme(client, { signer: privateKeyToAccount(KEY) });
const payFetch = wrapFetchWithPayment(fetch, client);

const res = await payFetch("https://agent402.tools/api/sahm-rule");

Part of these workflows

Sahm Rule recession indicator is one step in these 4 skill packs, each sold as a single call:

• Macro economics - Pull the canonical US macro dataset - yield curve, CPI, unemployment, fed funds, Sahm rule - without an API key.
• Macro dashboard refresh - The full macro + crypto dashboard in one call: 5 FRED series, 5 Treasury reads, yield-curve spread, crypto market/trending/global, and live gas - the 14-tool basket recurring buyers refresh every cycle, bundled below its a la carte price.
• Macro backdrop snapshot - The 'is the economic backdrop you're modeling against still current?' pack. Pull the canonical macro signals - CPI year-over-year, unemployment, fed funds, the Treasury yield curve, a G10 FX dashboard, the Sahm Rule recession indicator, and the next scheduled economic releases - in one composed workflow. Seven egress tools, one composite snapshot the agent can cite before doing any forecast or investment math.
• Inflation check - Is the economy in recession territory? CPI, fed funds, unemployment, and Sahm rule in one call.

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